Some US states may be able to relax some aspects of social distancing measures as early as May 4, according to the researchers behind an influential model often cited by the White House.
The relaxations could come so long as “robust containment strategies” are implemented to prevent a second wave of infections, according to a statement from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington (IHME).
The states that could open as early as May 4 include Vermont, West Virginia, Montana and Hawaii.
However, other states – including Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Utah, Arkansas and Oklahoma – may need to wait until late June or early July, according to IHME.
Strategies for safely relaxing some social distancing include widely implemented testing, contact tracing and isolation of confirmed cases, and restricting large gatherings, according to the researchers.
The modelers cautioned that decisions by states to relax social distancing should be informed by meeting critical metrics closer to these dates, including a very low number of estimated infections in the community – less than one estimated infection per 1 million people.
More data: The researchers announced that the peak number of daily deaths in the US may have peaked two days ago, and the model is now estimating 60,308 (estimated range of 34,063 to 140,381) deaths across the US by August 4, down from 68,841 as predicted on April 13.
The estimates for total US deaths have been revised downward based in part on newly available cell phone data that provide a window on mobility patterns, according to IHME.
“We are seeing the numbers decline because some state and local governments, and, equally important, individuals around the country have stepped up to protect their families, their neighbors, and friends and coworkers by reducing physical contact,” IHME director Dr. Christopher Murray said in a statement.
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April 18, 2020 at 02:23AM
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