Here’s what you need to know:
- New federal projections show a spike in infections if shelter in place orders are lifted at 30 days.
- Global supply chains have been disrupted, leading to shortages of key goods.
- Apple and Google plan to embed a feature iPhones and Android devices that will help track the virus.
- The global death toll surpasses 100,000.
- Schumer says the Trump administration has agreed to join negotiations on an interim round of virus relief.
- What we know — and don’t know — about tests for antibodies.
- Michigan tightens rules, barring travel between homes.
New federal projections show a spike in infections if shelter in place orders are lifted at 30 days.
Stay-at-home orders, school closures and social distancing greatly reduce infections of the coronavirus, but lifting those restrictions after just 30 days will lead to a dramatic infection spike this summer and death tolls that would rival doing nothing, government projections indicate.
The projections obtained by The New York Times come from the departments of Homeland Security and Health and Human Services. The models use three scenarios. The first has policymakers doing nothing to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus. The second, labeled “steady state,” assumes schools remain closed until summer, 25 percent of Americans telework from home, and some social distancing continues. The third scenario includes a 30-day shelter in place, on top of those “steady state” restrictions.
The documents, dated April 9, contain no dates for when shelter in places orders were delivered nor do they contain specific dates for when spikes would hit. The risk they show of easing shelter-in-place orders currently in effect in most of the country undercut recent statements by President Trump that the United States could be ready to reopen “very, very soon.”
The model foresees a bump in the demand for ventilators — considered a stand-in for serious Covid-19 infection rates — 30 days after stay-at-home orders are issued, a major spike in infections about 100 days after, and peaking 150 days after the initial order. (Assuming further shelter-in-place policies are not implemented to reduce future peaks.)
For most states that implemented stay-at-home orders in late March, including New York City, Massachusetts and Illinois, that spike would come in mid to late summer.
The government’s conclusions are sobering. Without any mitigation, such as school closings, shelter-in-place orders, telework and socially distancing, the death toll from coronavirus could have reached 300,000. But if the administration lifts the 30-day stay-at-home orders, the death total is estimated to reach 200,000, even if schools remain closed until summer, 25 percent of the country continues to work from home and some social distancing continues.
If nothing was done, infection rates would top out at 195 million Americans, and 965,000 people would require hospitalization in an intensive care unit, according to the projections’ “best guess.” But with a 30-day shelter in place and other measures, infections would still reach 160 million and 740,000 would need intensive care.
The models show a higher demand for ventilators in the short term if states had never issued the stay-at-home orders. But the spike in demand 150 days after lifting such an order is expected to be more severe than if the United States had never issued such orders and instead relied on school closures, sending people home to telework and directing the public to socially distance.
The federal agencies advised in the model that the projected demand for ventilators are “a worst-case scenario” and did not factor in states sharing the lifesaving devices across state lines.
Mr. Trump has teased the idea of reopening the United States to boost the economy, even as state governors, hospitals around the country and the federal government’s inspector general for Health and Human Services have warned of widespread shortages of test kits, protective gear and medical equipment.
“You see what’s happening and where we are and where we stand,” Mr. Trump said. “And hopefully we’re going to be opening up — you can call it “opening” very, very — very, very soon, I hope.”
But economists say that lifting restrictions — particularly on nonessential businesses — will restore some activity to an economy that is currently in free fall, shedding jobs and contracting rapidly.
Many experts caution that growth will be slow when it returns, because people will be wary of resuming normal activities before the country has far more extensive testing for the virus to help people assess the risk of contracting it if they leave their homes. Such a system appears nowhere close to deployment.
Global supply chains have been disrupted, leading to shortages of key goods.
Across North America, Europe and elsewhere, factories are idled and workers are in lockdown. At some ports, goods are piling up, while elsewhere container ships sail empty. Dairy farmers are dumping their milk, while grocery store shelves have been picked bare.
These disruptions in global trade could grow more noticeable in the months to come, as consumers hoard products and countries clamp down on exports of medical supplies and even food.
Shoppers may see more shortages of unexpected products, including laptops, toilet paper and medicines. Some companies could find themselves lacking raw materials and components, a recipe for further financial trouble.
So far this year, most of the disruptions have stemmed from factory shutdowns in China, a manufacturing hub for products like electronics and industrial machinery. Laptop exports from China to the United States have plummeted, for instance, just as demand is surging as companies switch to remote work and students are thrust into distance learning.
But like the virus, which spread from China to the rest of the world, so too will the economic disruptions, which are likely to intensify in months to come. For companies and consumers who have come to rely on being able to ship goods rapidly and seamlessly around the world, the disruptions could come as a shock.
“China has shown us how extreme the downturn in industrial activity can be,” said Chris Rogers, a global trade and logistics analyst at Panjiva.
Across the United States and Europe, major manufacturers like Volkswagen and Ford have shuttered, in turn reducing demand for steel, electronics and other components.
So far, many of the product shortages in the United States and Europe don’t stem from an actual lack of goods, but rather surging demand from consumers, who are stockpiling bleach, toilet paper, diapers and dried beans, unsure what the months to come will hold.
Other shortages are occurring as producers of toilet paper, food and other products try to figure out how to rework supply chains that are set up to provide bulk shipments to restaurants and schools to instead meet household demand.
The situation is likely to get worse over the next few months.
Mike Jette, vice president of consulting services at GEP, which provides supply chain software and strategy for General Mills, Exxon Mobil, Macy’s, Walmart and other major companies, predicted that peak disruption for major companies with international supply chains would likely happen three months from now.
Mr. Jette said that companies making electronics, appliances and other products would exhaust their “safety stock” for components in the coming weeks.
Apple and Google plan to embed a feature iPhones and Android devices that will help track the virus.
In one of the most far-ranging attempts to halt the spread of the coronavirus, Apple and Google said they were building software into smartphones that would tell people if they were in recent contact with someone who was infected with the virus.
The technology giants said they were teaming up to release the tool within several months, building it into the operating systems of the billions of iPhones and Android devices around the world. That would enable the smartphones to constantly log other devices they get close to, enabling “contact tracing” of the disease.
With the tool, infected people would notify a public health app that they have the coronavirus, which would then alert phones that had recently come into proximity with that infected person’s device.
Google and Apple said the tool would protect the privacy of smartphone users and that people would have to opt in to use it.
The global death toll surpasses 100,000.
The official global death toll from the virus surpassed 100,000 on Friday, with more than 1.5 million confirmed cases — figures that experts warn vastly understate the true extent of the epidemic.
Trouble spots were emerging from Moscow to Jakarta, Indonesia, as the virus reached deeper into places that so far have been spared the worst of the pandemic. And in a sign of the level of despair caused by economies closing down, a bloody melee erupted in a poor area of Nairobi, Kenya, where food was being distributed.
Countries like the United States, China and India competed for resources or used them for political ends, undermining calls for global cooperation.
In Pakistan, Muslim worshippers defied the government’s orders not to congregate for Friday Prayers. They gathered at mosques — some of which opened to welcome them, despite government directives to close — and clashed with police.
Countries in Europe stepped up enforcement of lockdown measures as the Easter weekend approached on Friday, and warned that restrictions on moving and congregating would be extended well into April and possibly longer. The governor of Tokyo, parting ways with a Japanese government that has been criticized for not being vigilant enough, ordered many businesses to close.
But at the other extreme, South Korea, which got its outbreak under control early, stuck to its policy of continuing public life as much as possible, and went ahead with planned national elections.
It might have been the most sanitary mass vote ever conducted. People wore masks and even waiting in line, stood apart from each other. They were required to have their temperatures checked, use hand sanitizer and don gloves before voting.
The State Department said it has helped bring back more than 56,000 Americans who were stranded abroad after airlines cancelled international flights and nations shut down airports. The vast majority of Americans returned from Central and South America, with the largest number — 6,800 people — coming back from Peru.
Schumer says the Trump administration has agreed to join negotiations on an interim round of virus relief.
Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat of New York and the minority leader, said on Friday that the Trump administration had agreed to bipartisan negotiations with congressional leaders to break a stalemate over providing a $250 billion federal infusion to replenish a fast-depleting loan program for distressed small businesses.
The day after the package stalled in the Senate amid Democratic demands for more funds, Mr. Schumer said he had spoken with Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, about beginning talks to salvage it.
“There’s no reason we can’t come to a bipartisan agreement by early next week,” Mr. Schumer said in a statement on Friday.
The administration requested quick action to approve the money to bolster a loan program created by the $2 trillion stimulus law last month for small businesses, known as the Payment Protection Program. But Democrats blocked an effort by Republicans to push it through the Senate on Thursday during a procedural session, demanding conditions on the new funds and additional aid for hospitals, state and local governments and food aid.
The package was to be an interim step as lawmakers look toward a far larger package expected to top $1 trillion to build on the stimulus law, which is likely to be negotiated later this month.
What we know — and don’t know — about tests for antibodies.
When will life return to normal, or at least a new normal?
A major answer to the question of when — and how — Americans can return to public places like work and school could depend on something called an antibody test, a blood test that determines whether someone has ever been infected with the coronavirus.
People who are believed to be immune may be able to safely return to work, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently announced that it would begin using antibody tests to see what proportion of the population has already been infected.
“Within a period of a week or so, we are going to have a relatively large number of tests available,” Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease expert, said Friday morning on CNN.
He said federal officials were discussing the idea of “certificates of immunity,” which could be issued to people who had previously been infected.
“As we get to the point of considering opening the country,” Dr. Fauci said, “it is very important to understand how much that virus has penetrated society.” Immunity certificates, he said, had “some merit under certain circumstances.”
The idea of providing proof of immunity to allow workers to return to their jobs is being considered in many countries, including Britain and Italy. But as with any test, they are not perfect, and there have been problems with their accuracy.
Michigan tightens rules, barring travel between homes.
Michigan will forbid people from traveling between homes in the state beginning on Saturday, a sweeping expansion of the government’s efforts to contain the virus.
In an executive order on Thursday, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer effectively eliminated an exception to the state’s stay-at-home order that had allowed people to travel between homes. Beginning Saturday, the new order declares, “travel between two residences is not permitted.”
“We must continue to do everything we can to slow the spread and protect our families,” Ms. Whitmer said in a statement.
Although there are loopholes and exceptions — people can, for example, still travel to places for exercise — the order will newly bar residents from traveling to vacation properties, whether they own them or not.
Michigan has among the most virus cases in the nation, and health officials have been particularly worried about the spread of the virus in and around Detroit.
Ms. Whitmer also announced the creation of a task force to make recommendations to address the outbreak’s disproportionate impact on African-Americans. Michigan’s population is 14 percent black, but they make up 40 percent of the state’s virus victims. The group will be led by Garlin Gilchrist II, the state’s first African-American lieutenant governor.
Public health experts attribute the disparity to longstanding inequalities. Black Americans disproportionately belong to part of the work force that does not have the luxury of working from home. They are also less likely to be insured, and more likely to have pre-existing health conditions and face racial bias that prevents them from getting proper treatment, they said.
New York’s death toll is still staggering, but the governor says there are reasons to be optimistic.
In New York, still the center of the outbreak in the U.S., 777 more people had died, bringing the state total to 7,844, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said Friday during his daily news briefing. While the death toll is sobering, he said there were reasons to be optimistic, with fewer patients in intensive care units and the number of hospitalized patients remaining nearly flat.
“Stay home, because that works. We are flattening the curve,” he said, as officials across the country wrestle with when it will be safe to restart the economy and return to somewhat normal routines. “Now is the time to be smart.”
“Let’s study the data and let’s look at what has happened around the world,” Mr. Cuomo said. “And let’s make sure the best health minds in the country are giving us their best advice.”
Before there is talk of reopening, he said, millions of tests to diagnose people and test for antibodies are needed. He said New York labs were working on these tests but could not produce nearly what is needed and urged the president to use the Defense Production Act to require companies to produce tests in the millions. He said that testing at an “unprecedented scale” was required before people can return to work.
“I don’t have that tool,” he said. “The federal government does.”
With the rising death toll, the city has turned to a potter’s field in the Bronx to bury as many as 25 unclaimed bodies a day in an effort to make space in morgues for new victims.
The tristate region’s death toll pushed past 10,000, with another 1,010 people dying of the virus in New York State and New Jersey.
A mostly virtual Easter is expected, but some congregations plan to defy orders.
A few lone, holdout churches plan to defy local and federal officials this Easter weekend and meet for in-person services, despite stay-at-home orders and social distancing guidance from medical professionals.
The vast majority of congregations are taking precautions, with many holding services online and innovating new ways of virtual worship. Easter occurs as the pandemic is reaching its peak in many places.
But the restrictions over gatherings have frustrated some Christian pastors, particularly conservatives, who say the rules restrict their religious freedom.
In Louisiana, Pastor Tony Spell of Life Tabernacle Church, who was recently arrested after holding in-person services, plans to hold Easter services for hundreds of people on Sunday. In Idaho, Ammon Bundy also plans to host hundreds of people for an Easter gathering, according to reports.
Rev. Rodney Howard-Browne, pastor of River at Tampa Bay Church, was recently arrested for “intentionally and repeatedly” defying emergency orders in Florida, after he held in-person services.
Some Catholics are urging bishops to find ways to hold some form of public mass, and to find safe access for the anointing of the sick.
Elsewhere some churches are planning to celebrate via drive-up services, where congregants do not leave their vehicles. The Vatican will stream an Easter Mass celebrated by Pope Francis at St. Peters Basilica. Joel Osteen, who leads Lakewood Church in Texas, is streaming services with performances by Kanye West and Mariah Carey.
Mr. Trump has said he plans to watch Easter services on a laptop, and Vice President Pence said his family plans to virtually attend from their living room.
Prominent evangelical pastor Rick Warren, of Saddleback Church in California, encouraged pastors across the country to follow the guidelines in a CNN Town Hall Thursday night.
“As shepherds, we are called to protect God’s flock, not just feed it and lead it,” he said. “And if you really love your congregation, tell them to stay at home on Easter.”
California’s governor notes a drop in I.C.U. cases but warns that “one data point is not a trend.”
Gov. Gavin Newsom of California said he was encouraged by — but not drawing too many conclusions from — the state’s first drop in the number of virus patients who were being treated in intensive care units.
He said there were 1,132 people receiving intensive care as of Thursday, a 1.9 percent decrease from the day before.
“One data point is not a trend,” Mr. Newsom warned. “One data point is not a headline, so I caution anybody to read too much into that one point of data, but nonetheless it is encouraging.”
California’s decision to ship hundreds of ventilators to other states this week has been met with alarm by some local officials in places like Riverside County, east of Los Angeles, which has been among the hardest hit places in the state.
Officials in the county, where there have been more than 1,100 cases and at least 32 deaths, said this week that the state had denied its request for ventilators, and that a second one was pending.
On Thursday, Mr. Newsom sought to allay those concerns and pushed back against the idea that the state was neglecting its own needs.
“It was the right thing to do, and it was the responsible thing to do as Americans,” he said. “We can’t just sit on assets when we could save lives in other states.”
Shuttered or short of cash, small businesses struggle to survive.
When the federal government began rushing trillions of dollars of assistance to Americans crushed by the pandemic, the hope was that some of the aid would allow businesses to keep workers on the payroll and cushion employees against job losses.
But so far, a staggering number of Americans — more than 16 million — have lost their jobs amid the outbreak. Businesses continue to fail as retailers, restaurants, nail salons and other companies across the country run out of cash and close up shop.
There is a growing agreement among many economists that the government’s efforts were too small and came too late in the fast-moving pandemic to prevent businesses from abandoning their workers. Federal agencies, working in a prescribed partnership with Wall Street, have proved ill equipped to move money quickly to the places it is needed most.
Flooded by requests for help like never before, a federal program that was supposed to deliver emergency relief to small businesses in just three days has run low on funding and nearly frozen up entirely.
The initiative, the Economic Injury Disaster Loan program, is an expansion of an emergency system run by the Small Business Administration that has for years helped companies after natural disasters like hurricanes, floods and tornadoes.
But in the face of the pandemic, the loan program is drowning in requests. Many applicants have waited weeks for approval, and while the program is supposed to offer loans up to $2 million, many recent applicants said the S.B.A. help line had told them that loans would be capped at $15,000 per borrower.
A congressman convenes the House — wearing mask and gloves.
In a sign of how the coronavirus pandemic has changed the face of Congress, Representative Don Beyer, Democrat of Virginia, gaveled in a procedural session of the House on Friday morning wearing latex gloves and a brown cloth mask obscuring his entire face up to his eyes.
“It’s not my normal look but we are not living in normal times,” Mr. Beyer said on Twitter, where he posted a screen grab from C-Span showing him on the House rostrum holding the gavel, a large American flag behind him, wearing the protective gear. “Those who would lead must do first by example.”
Even as public health officials recommend that people wear masks to guard against transmission, Mr. Trump has said he is not interested in wearing one, telling reporters that he could not see himself sitting at the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office in such equipment. “Somehow, I don’t see it for myself,” Mr. Trump said. “I just don’t.” (His wife, Melania, however, tweeted a picture of herself on Thursday wearing a medical mask and noting that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. was advising people to cover their faces.)
Mr. Beyer previously self-isolated last month as a precaution after possible exposure to someone with the coronavirus. He said the mask he wore on Friday, which had coffee filters inside, was made by his daughter. His decision to wear it reflected the concerns lawmakers have about returning to Washington for legislative business at a time when experts have recommended avoiding traveling or congregating in large groups.
While Congress is scheduled to return on April 20, lawmakers in both chambers have suggested in recent days that the meeting may get pushed back.
Representative Brad Sherman, Democrat of California, who oversaw the last procedural session in the House on Tuesday, took a similar precaution, wearing a black mask made by his 11-year-old daughter, Molly. Mr. Sherman did not wear gloves during his brief moments of presiding over the chamber.
The pandemic has upended voting in the United States, but South Korea shows a different approach.
It led to chaotic scenes, heath jitters and long delays in Wisconsin on Tuesday after Republicans went to court to block the Democratic governor’s attempt to postpone its primary. Other states have postponed elections. And with many officials advocating voting by mail during the pandemic, Mr. Trump and some Republican are raising debunked claims about fraud.
But the election now underway in South Korea highlights a very different approach.
To make its voting run smoothly, South Korea has mobilized armies of public servants, including young men doing civic duty in lieu of mandatory military service, to prepare for its parliamentary elections. They have disinfected 14,000 voting stations across the country, and marked waiting lines at three-foot intervals so voters can avoid standing too close to one another.
Millions of voters are taking advantage of early voting, ahead of the official election day next Wednesday. Anyone showing temperature readings higher than 37.5 Celsius (99.5 Fahrenheit) is supposed to be stopped at the gates of polling stations and escorted to a separate area to vote. The voter is then supposed to be sent for testing, and the voting booth disinfected.
In Wisconsin, state health officials said Friday that they would track virus cases thought to be tied to this week’s balloting.
The Wisconsin Department of Health Services said in a statement that there was “some risk” people had been exposed to the virus while voting or working at the polls.
“We hope the extraordinary efforts taken by local clerks, public health, voters and poll workers helped minimize any transmission, but we stand prepared to respond if that isn’t the case,” said Andrea Palm, the state health secretary.
If voters or poll workers contracted the virus, the first new cases will most likely start emerging next week, the department said.
Take a look at what you need to know about masks.
Wearing a face covering takes some adjustment. To get the most benefit, you need to wear it consistently and correctly. Here are some pointers.
Reporting contributed by Alan Blinder, Eileen Sullivan, Zolan Kanno-Youngs, Andy Newman, Matthew Haag, William K. Rashbaum, Ali Watkins, Marc Santora, Tim Arango, Hannah Beech, Choe Sang-Hun, Nick Corasaniti, Stacy Cowley, Stephanie Saul, Matt Stevens, Adeel Hassan, Jim Tankersley, Elizabeth Williamson, Peter S. Goodman, Katie Thomas, Sui-Lee Wee, Jeffrey Gettleman, Elizabeth Dias, Richard Pérez-Peña, Lara Jakes, Brian Wollitz and Ali DeFazi.
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