The spread of the Delta strain of COVID-19 has triggered hard lockdowns in several Australian states, but one of the country's leading epidemiologists says it is time to discuss a softer approach.
Key points:
- Professor Tony Blakely says even if the hard lockdown is successful, the Delta strain may return
- Not all experts agree a "soft lockdown" is worth considering
- The Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews has rejected a "soft lockdown", saying Delta moves faster than people can be vaccinated
University of Melbourne epidemiologist Tony Blakely is floating the idea of a "soft lockdown" in Victoria if the state is not able to get below 40 cases by September 2.
He said continuing the current hard lockdown, the state's sixth, would take a toll on the population's mental health.
And he warned even if Victoria did eliminate the Delta variant, there was no guarantee it would not enter the state again via New South Wales.
Professor Blakely proposed "a tidy bridge" while Victoria waited for higher vaccination coverage in November that would be closer to the National Cabinet's target for reopening.
He said it could look like industries resuming work, curfews being ditched and people being allowed more time to spend outdoors.
He even suggested bubbles between vaccinated households.
"I think we need a week as a civil society to start chatting about these things," he said.
He said he was concerned about the impact of prolonged lockdowns on people's mental health and the economy.
Victorian Premier says Delta too infectious for soft lockdown
Victorians have faced more days in lockdown — over 200 — than any other state or territory.
On Monday, the state recorded 71 new local COVID-19 cases, the highest daily increase in its recent Delta outbreak.
Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews told reporters at Monday's press conference he could not predict what settings would be recommended in a week's time.
"I said a few times, I don't have a crystal ball. I wish I did, but I just don't," Mr Andrews said.
"I think what Tony [Blakely] is saying is there are a number of options.
"He's at pains in his article to not necessarily say he's advocating about them, he just wants to talk about them — that's slightly different."
Mr Andrews said the Delta variant had taken away any option of being able to hold cases steady under a softer lockdown.
"The notion that we can vaccinate people as fast as the Delta virus infects people, that is not what the — Doherty modelling shows, it's not the National Cabinet agreed position," he said.
Professor Blakely said the move to a soft lockdown would mean accepting "earlier than we would have liked" that we must live with the virus.
He said based on initial calculations he made over the weekend, case numbers would peak in October but not to a level that Victorian authorities would not be able to eventually bring down.
"As the vaccination coverage is going up … it looks plausible that you could catch it at about 400 cases per day [in October]," he said.
"I know that doesn't sound great, but you'd catch it then and then bring it down. And therefore you'd be in a soft lockdown till about November, whatever that looks like to be decided."
But what do other experts think?
Catherine Bennett, the chair of epidemiology at Deakin University, said it did not look like the extra layers of enforcement being used to implement Victoria's restrictions were making a difference in the current outbreak.
"So we have to be in this [lockdown] for longer so that we are allowing people access to the vaccine they are queuing up and waiting for," Professor Bennett said.
ABC News: Peter Drought
)Professor Bennett said for now it was vital to ensure hospitals were not overwhelmed.
"So we do have to try and manage those hospitalisation levels," she said.
"But we can do a better job of that now because our vaccination rates are higher than they were last year."
She said even though we may see greater case numbers, there would not be the same impact, particularly because the groups most at risk were largely protected.
Professor Bennett also highlighted the likelihood of getting good vaccination coverage over the next few weeks.
"If we can do that, then absolutely. You need to weigh it (lockdown) up against all the other costs and stress and financial impacts," she said.
"That then leads to health impacts that are coming from having not just a very very strict lockdown, but a lockdown now that is well beyond 200 days of Victorians."
Softening Victoria's lockdown may impact young people and children
Alexandra Martiniuk, an epidemiologist at the University of Sydney, said a "soft lockdown" was worth discussing but it was still too soon to implement one.
"The challenge with the idea of the bridge-over concept or a lockdown light or a softer lockdown for Victoria — or for any state — is that it will leave the unvaccinated highly vulnerable," Professor Martiniuk told ABC News Breakfast.
Professor Martiniuk said it might result in the vaccinated population having a softer lockdown, while unvaccinated people endured a stricter lockdown independent of policy or the state around them.
"And that's, I think, unfair and a bit sad," she said.
Supplied: Professor Alexandra Martiniuk
)She said she was not comfortable with COVID-19 cases rising in October and November while vaccination rates started to increase.
"That means there'll be more COVID cases in kids and younger age groups like 20 and 30-year-olds," she said.
"Now, they may be getting less sick than older people … they still do have more mild disease, [but] we don't know enough really about long COVID with children or young people, and some of them still will get very sick and end up in hospital."
Softening lockdown would sees cases swell to '700', expert says
Nancy Baxter, a clinical epidemiologist at the University of Melbourne, said she was not sure Professor Blakely's suggestions would be considered "soft" to most people.
"If you don't have people restricting their movement, this isn't going to be 70 cases, this is going to be 700 cases," Professor Baxter said.
"I think the restrictions that would be able to be softened would be a small number of the restrictions without having this kind of run really wild."
Supplied: University of Melbourne
)She said it was already difficult keeping cases under control with existing lockdown measures.
"But to loosen up to the point where people would think it was tolerable would mean we … would not have any kind of control over it," she said.
Professor Baxter said it was important people understood the risks involved in softening Victoria's lockdown during the current outbreak.
"The choices that we make have implications … number one, the lockdown is not going to be particularly soft — there's going to be a real hardship for many," she said.
"And number two, it's going to mean that more people get sick and die, and having some idea by the case numbers and by the estimates of what the impact will be and what the cost is of softening lockdown, I think is pretty important."
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