Welcome to The Redbird Review
Excuse me for holding my nose as I look at the state of play in the so-called competition for the No. 2 wild card in the National League. It appears that this fracas will come down to this question: which team will produce the least amount of stench?
This belching contest matches four teams: Cincinnati, San Diego, St. Louis and Philadelphia. And in a week of baseball that began last Monday, the four contestants combined to lose 14 of 23 games. None managed a winning record for the week.
The Padres are 3-13 in their last 16 games, and 20-29 since July 1. The Phillies were on a 4-11 flop before winning three straight against Arizona over the weekend. The Reds, a blah 10-10 in their last 20 games, went 2-4 against Milwaukee and Miami last week.
Your Cardinals have a losing record (48-51) since losing game two of a doubleheader against the NY Mets on May 5. They are 43-48 since May 14. They played to a draw (7-7) in their final 14 games of the season against Pittsburgh.
The four-game series split at PNC Park was lowlighted by two blatant giveaways by the Cardinals. The visitors blew a 7-1 lead to fall 11-7 on Thursday, and couldn’t protect a 3-1 lead with three outs to go in Sunday’s 4-3 knockout.
The Pirates are projected to lose 101 games this season. Get this: Since June 24 the tanking Pirates are 7-7 against the Cardinals — and 15-30 against all other opponents. In August the Pirates went 4-6 vs. St. Louis — and 4-13 vs. others.
Hey, does anybody want to win this thing? The Cardinals are only 3.5 games out of the second wild card. Surprising. Or is it? When you have so much on the line and lose four of seven games against the Pirates over a 10-day period, you aren’t earning your place in the race. You’re just being propped up by other wayward, incompetent teams that have joined you in the muck.
As I’ve said many times (unfortunately) this season, the standards for Cardinals baseball have drooped to a sad, cringeworthy level.
Speaking of his team’s 2-2 stay at Pittsburgh — a series that easily should have resulted in four wins by the Cardinals — manager Mike Shildt said this in his post-game Zoom session:
“We played about 34 of the most flawless innings of baseball you can play. And really, those are two half-innings,” Shildt said, speaking of the two one-inning bullpen blowups that turned success into agony. “Guys were put in the right spot, guys were competing, we got guys that have been good for us all year. But we just don’t create a lot of margin for error. We did (Saturday night) and (Sunday) we weren’t able to and it bit us.
“I don’t really know what more to do to get out of this group. I think this group’s playing as good as baseball as you can play, and unfortunately, the game is not always fair.”
And I don’t really know what to say about Shildt.
With the schedule dwindling, and the playoff odds still against them, his team gift-bags two games to the Pirates. His team loses a series, and splits another, to the Pirates, losing four of seven to the Bucs at a time when every victory is crucial.
And sorry, but this weekend series wasn’t “about 34 of the most flawless innings of baseball you can play,” as Shildt ludicrously stated.
In Thursday’s loss, the Cardinals took a 7-1 lead and didn’t score again, managing one hit, a single, in their final 18 at-bats. Sunday, after taking a 3-1 lead on Tommy Edman’s fifth-inning homer, the Cardinals went 1 for 15 with six strikeouts and a double-play grounder. In the final three innings Sunday, with a chance to put the game out of reach, STL hitters went 0 for 9 with six strikeouts.
Four lineup regulars — Nolan Arenado, Tyler O’Neill, Yadier Molina and Harrison Bader — combined for nine hits in 59 at-bats (.152) with four RBI and 10 strikeouts. Those four, and Dylan Carlson, combined for three hits in 19 at-bats (.158) with runners in scoring position.
Starting pitchers Miles Mikolas and Kwang Hyun Kim each lasted fewer than five innings.
- Aug 29, 2021; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; St. Louis Cardinals pitching coach Mike Maddux (35) talks to starting pitcher Kwang Hyun Kim (33) as catcher Yadier Molina (4) looks on during the fourth inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
The STL bullpen was smashed for an 8.10 ERA. Yes, most of the damage came against Genesis Cabrera (Thursday) and Alex Reyes (Sunday.) But as I’ve already explained a few times, Reyes and Cabrera were having problems even before this series, so their blow-ups shouldn’t be dismissed as isolated, outlier events.
(Sidebar: I get a kick out of the sudden media shrieking over Reyes, which includes demands to replace him as closer. As if his unfortunate Sunday implosion was something new. The dude has a 6.64 ERA, a 20 percent strikeout rate, and a significantly increased HR-allowed rate in 21 games over July and August.)
Oh, and The Cardinals were pounded by Pittsburgh’s Yoshi Tsutsugo for two homers, a triple and seven RBI in only 10 at-bats. Before the Cardinals came to town, Tsutsugo was batting .179 with a .301 slugging percentage for the season.
But again, in the manager’s view, his valiant team is “playing as good as baseball as you can play, and unfortunately, the game is not always fair.”
With a chance to draw closer in the wild-card scrum, the Cardinals squandered two almost-certain wins over the Pirates, a weakling with a .366 winning percentage. And all Shildt can come up with is more exaggerated or false praise and a riff on the old “life ain’t always fair” bromide. Weak.
The next three games in Cincinnati are vitally important.
“It’s clearly a series of importance but I don’t want to make it too important,” Shildt said after Sunday’s loss.
No, we wouldn’t want to do that.
Not with 33 games remaining, and only six more cracks at the Reds. The Reds and Cards will play three in St. Louis beginning Sept. 10.
The Cardinals just completed a stretch of 27 games that presented an opportunity to heap the wins; 21 of the 27 games were played against losing teams.
The Cardinals came out of it with an inadequate 15-12 record. They clearly failed to take advantage of the softer schedule, posting just the seventh-best record in the NL since the 27-game stretch got underway on July 30.
And now the soft-serve schedule gives way to a menu of 13 consecutive games against the Reds (3), Brewers (3), Dodgers (4) and Reds (3.)
STATE OF THE NO. 2 WILD-CARD RACE:
The Reds are in the lead at 71-61 and lead San Diego by 1 and ½ games, the Cardinals by 3 and ½, and the Phillies by 4.0.
Average record of remaining opponents, toughest to weakest:
Padres 74-55. 573
Cardinals 70-60, .538
Reds 60-70, .461
Phillies 57-72, .441
Wild-Card Probability, from FanGraphs:
Reds, 63.2%
Padres, 23.4%
Phillies, 5.5%
Cardinals, 4.4%
The week ahead
Reds: at home for 3 vs. St. Louis and 3 vs. Detroit.
Padres: 3 at Arizona, 3 at home vs. Houston
Cardinals: 3 at Cincinnati, 3 at Milwaukee
Phillies: 3 at Washington, 3 at Miami
TWO BULLPENS: Alex Reyes, Giovanny Gallegos, Genesis Cabrera and Andrew combined for only four innings pitched at Pittsburgh but were rocked for 12 earned runs. (An ERA of 27.00.) But T.J. McFarland, Luis Garcia, Daniel Ponce de Leon, Junior Fernandez and Kodi Whitley did not allow a run in their combined nine innings of work. Well done.
IF SHILDT TRIES A NEW CLOSER: It should be Luis Garcia. His first three appearances for the Cardinals were shaky, but that’s hardly alarming considering that he was coming to a new team after spending the first three months at Triple A. But in his last 15 appearances for the Cardinals, Garcia hasn’t allowed a run in 19 innings, allowing a .138 batting average, .361 OPS — and with a strikeout rate of 29.4%.
Giovanny Gallegos would be the predictable choice — but only among those who overlook (or are completely unaware) of his recent trends. Since the beginning of July, Gallegos has a 5.16 ERA in 23 games and 22.2 innings. He’s allowed a .271 average and .796 OPS over this time.
During the first three months Gallegos had a 1.93 ERA and allowed a .209 slug and .616 OPS. The slugging percentage against him since July 1 is .459.
What about the righthander’s strikeout rate? It was 31.7% over the first three months, and is 26.4% since the start of July. It’s fallen even more (22.4%) in August.
HAPPY 40TH, ADAM WAINWRIGHT: He’s pitching like a youngster. Check that; he’s pitching a helluva lot better than most youngsters. Wainwright put the Pirates away easily Saturday with seven shutout innings. Remember how we wondered (worried?) how Waino would hold up after last year’s short season — and with his 40th birthday approaching? Well, nothing to worry about.
In six August starts he’s pitched to a 1.43 ERA, and averaged 7.3 innings per start. In his last 16 starts, going back to June 3, Wainwright has a 2.29 ERA and has averaged 6.87 innings per assignment. The team is 12-4 in his last 16 starts, and 5-1 in his six August starts.
Among MLB starters that have made at least 15 starts since the start of June, Wainwright ranks third with his 2.29 ERA. The only two starters ahead of him over this time are Walker Buehler (1.63) and Robbie Ray (2.15.)
THE BRILLIANT EDMUNDO SOSA: The rookie infielder had a swell weekend at PNC Park, going 6 for 11 with three extra-base hits, four runs and five RBI.
Let’s dig into the Sosa File:
— Sosa has 60 plate appearances this month. And among Cardinals with at least 25 plate appearances in August, Sosa leads with a .392 batting average, .483 OBP, .667 slug and 1.150 OPS. He’s also drilled seven extra-base hits, scored 11 runs, and knocked in 10. As an added bonus, Sosa’s August strikeout rate is only 13.3%; he puts the ball in play and makes things happen.
— In 55 games as a starter, Sosa’s batting average is up to .317 with a .394 OBP, .461 slug and .855 OPS. The more he plays, the more the numbers continue to rise. In his 55 starts Sosa has six doubles, four triples and four homers. He’s walked 11 times and gotten hit with pitches 12 times; no wonder he’s scored 28 runs. He’s also driven in 18.
— For all of Sosa’s offensive might in August, eight other Cardinal position players have more plate appearances this month. The only Cards position players with fewer PA in August are Lars Nootbaar, Matt Carpenter, Andrew Knizner and Jose Rondon. Sosa has four fewer plate appearances in August than fellow shortstop Paul DeJong.
— Manager Shildt gave Sosa only 11 plate appearances in April, 14th on the team. He ranked 8th in May with 59 plate appearances, and 7th in June with 77. (It would have been even less than 77 PA for June, but Shildt had little choice but to go with Sosa after DeJong went on the IL. Then in July, Sosa was given only 34 plate appearances by Shildt; for the month that put Sosa behind nine other Cardinals including Matt Carpenter. My goodness.
— According to the Fielding Bible, Sosa ranks 8th among MLB shortstops with five defensive runs saved this season. He also has two DRS at second base, and one at third base. Among all MLB infielders, only 12 have saved more runs defensively than Sosa. But eight infielders rated above Sosa in defensive runs saved have played 900 innings or more this year; Sosa has played only 515 innings.
— Despite being shorted on playing time this season considering his obvious value, Sosa ranks sixth among Cardinals position players with 1.5 Wins Above Replacement. For context, consider that Sosa is virtually tied in WAR with his fellow rookie Dylan Carlson (1.6 WAR) — even though Carlson has played in 28 more games and has 264 more plate appearances than Edmundo.
MORE PRAISE FOR TOMMY EDMAN: He was more than a pest in Pittsburgh; he was a source of power and speed. Edman went 9 for 18, clubbed three doubles and two homers, scored eight runs, and drove in nine. And the switch-hitting Edman continued to display his dramatic improvement against RH pitching; in 65 plate appearances against them in August, Edman is batting .357 with a .478 slug and .837 OPS.
Edman has 35 doubles, which leads the NL and is only one behind Detroit’s Jeimer Candelario for the most in the majors. Edman’s 35 doubles tie him at 15th with Red Schoendienst for most doubles in a season by a primary Cardinal second baseman. When Edman reaches 40 he’ll move into a tie for 9th for most doubles by a Cards second baseman in a season.
HARRISON BADER UPDATE: In August he’s 14 for 95 (.147) with a 27.6 strikeout rate, two extra-base hits, four RBI and a .208 average with runners in scoring position.
NOLAN ARENADO’S UPS AND DOWNS: Through 25 games this month, Arenado is hitting only .200 with a .270 OBP and .700 OPS. But his defense matters. And he has 11 extra base hits this month including six homers. He’s also tied with Paul Goldschmidt in August with a team-leading 22 RBI. And Arenado has been money when batting with runners in scoring position this month: .394 average, 1.129 OPS and 16 RBI.
ABOUT THE REDS: The Cardinals will start (in order) Jon Lester, Miles Mikolas and J.A. Happ against the Reds this week. Lester and Happ are lefthanders, and that may work in their favor. But not so fast, as I’ll explain …
LH pitchers have a 4.05 ERA against the Reds this season compared to the 4.74 ERA by righthanders. That said, the Reds have smacked LH starting pitchers around for a 4.87 ERA.
Overall Cincinnati’s hitters have less success against lefties than righties this season. Against LHP the Reds are batting .229 (last in the NL) with a .685 OPS (13th.) They’re 17 percent below league average offensively vs. lefties in park-and-league adjusted runs created.
Even with leftfielder Jesse Winker out with a strained intercostal the Reds remain formidable at home this season. They rank second or third in the NL in home batting average, OBP, slugging, OPS, and homers.
And in 16 starts made by LH pitchers at Great American Ball Park this season, the 16 starters have a combined 6.56 ERA.
Thanks for reading…
–Bernie
Bernie invites you to listen to his opinionated sports-talk show on 590-AM The Fan, KFNS. It airs Monday through Thursday from 3-6 p.m. and Friday from 4-6 p.m. You can listen by streaming online or by downloading the “Bernie Show” podcast at 590thefan.com — the 590 app works great and is available in your preferred app store.
The weekly “Seeing Red” podcast with Bernie and Will Leitch is available at 590thefan.com
Follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz
* All stats used here are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Stathead, Bill James Online, Fielding Bible, Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball Net unless otherwise noted.
For the last 35 years Bernie Miklasz has entertained, enlightened, and connected with generations of St. Louis sports fans.
While best known for his voice as the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch for 26 years, Bernie has also written for The Athletic, Dallas Morning News and Baltimore News American. Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington D.C.
Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats reside in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood of St. Louis.
"soft" - Google News
August 31, 2021 at 02:31AM
https://ift.tt/3t4Hj1d
Bernie's Redbird Review: After Flunking Against A Soft Schedule, the Cardinals Enter A Tough Stretch. - Scoopswithdannymac.com - Scoops with Danny Mac
"soft" - Google News
https://ift.tt/2QZtiPM
https://ift.tt/2KTtFc8
Bagikan Berita Ini
0 Response to "Bernie's Redbird Review: After Flunking Against A Soft Schedule, the Cardinals Enter A Tough Stretch. - Scoopswithdannymac.com - Scoops with Danny Mac"
Post a Comment