‘Close To A Worst-Case Scenario’—Former CDC Director Issues ‘Horrifying’ Outlook For New Covid Strain - Forbes

Topline

Former CDC Director Dr. Tom Frieden is warning that the U.S. may soon face “close to a worst-case scenario” as a new, highly-contagious strain of Covid-19 spreads around the country, warning that full hospitals in the U.S. may soon be the norm.

Key Facts

Frieden said of the strain that is rapidly spreading around the U.K. and Ireland that “I've never seen an epidemic curve like this.”

The U.K. is averaging nearly 60,000 new cases a day now, after averaging around 15,000 new cases a day at the start of December, while Ireland’s rise has been even more rapid.

Both countries are under strict lockdowns, yet cases continue to rise at a rate Frieden—who has spent decades working in public health—says he has never seen.

Eight states (Connecticut, Texas, Pennsylvania, Georgia, New York, Florida, California and Colorado) have confirmed at least one case of the new strain, which was identified in England during December.

There’s worry the strain is already widely spreading in the U.S.; the first confirmed case on Dec. 29 was from a man in rural Colorado who had no history of recent travel.

Crucial Quote

“Next 11+ days are horrifying. Uncontrolled spread. Slow vaccine rollout. Worrisome variants,” Frieden wrote in a tweet Friday. “Potential for perfect storm. Political turmoil and leadership vacuum.”

Big Number

56%. That’s how much more transmittable the new strain may be compared to other Covid-19 strains, according to a study from the London School of Hygiene And Tropical Medicine.

Key Background

The coronavirus pandemic is taking a worse toll on the U.S. now than at any point in the nearly one year the virus has been in the United States. For the first time, more than 4,000 deaths were reported in a single day on Thursday, according to Johns Hopkins University—the third-straight day the U.S. has set a new death record. More than 130,000 patients are hospitalized for Covid in the U.S., according to The COVID Tracking Project, while new daily case counts have topped 250,000 two out of the past six days.

What To Watch For

Vaccine rollout has been much slower than expected, as many states seem to lack adequate plans for dissemination. President-elect Joe Biden said that when he takes office on Jan. 20, he plans to allow almost all of the coronavirus vaccine to be distributed, in a break from the Trump administration, which has held vaccines back in order to ensure those getting a shot will have a second dose.