Maine has nation's highest COVID-19 reproduction rate - Press Herald

Maine’s reproduction rate for COVID-19 is now the highest in the country, according to a website that tracks national case data, with the virus spreading throughout the state unabated.

The website rt.live, using publicly available case data, estimates the average number of people who become infected by each infectious person — a key metric for how fast the virus is spreading. If the R number is above 1.0, the virus will spread quickly; if it’s below 1.0, infections will be slow.

Maine’s R number is estimated at 1.54, higher than every other state. From May 10 through Sept. 25, Maine’s R number was below 1 and the state was hailed as one of the best for controlling the virus’ spread. Now, all but two states (Mississippi and North Carolina) have R numbers above 1.

The COVID Tracking Project

State health officials reported 172 new cases and four additional deaths on Tuesday. The seven-day average daily total of 165 cases is more than five times higher than one month ago and up from about 102 cases a week ago. The number of active cases is 1,804 and has tripled since this time last month, according to data from the Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

Overall, there have now been 8,060 confirmed or probable cases of COVID-19 since the pandemic began and 156 Mainers have died from complications. It took less than three weeks for cases to go from 6,000 to 8,000.

The deaths reported Tuesday were: a woman in her 90s from York County, a man in his 90s from York County, a woman in her 80s from Somerset County, and a man in his 70s from Kennebec County. It was the first time since early June that four deaths were reported on the same day.

The United States has now gone over 10 million cases and 238,000 deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

While the case numbers continue to paint a bleak picture in Maine and across the country, pharmaceutical giant Pfizer Inc. announced Monday that the vaccine it’s developing is showing 90 percent effectiveness.

“We will be giving vaccines to people very likely before the end of this year,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on CNN.

Health officials in Maine have continually warned that the upcoming winter months could be brutal, especially since the virus is spreading so quickly throughout communities. Maine Gov. Janet Mills has reimposed some restrictions but has not signaled that another lockdown is coming.

New cases were reported Tuesday in all but two Maine counties — Piscataquis and Aroostook, the two most rural. Cumberland County led the way with 35 cases, followed by Kennebec, York and Androscoggin with 22 cases each.

Five counties in Maine now have high or substantial community transmission, which is defined as a new case rate greater than or equal to 16 per 10,000 people over the last 28 days. They are: Franklin, Knox, Somerset, Waldo and Washington. Somerset has the highest rate — 30.31 per 10,000 people.

Androscoggin, Cumberland, Kennebec and York counties are seeing moderate community transmission, which is defined as a new case rate greater than or equal to 8 but less than 16 per 10,000 people.

The remaining counties — Hancock, Aroostook, Lincoln, Oxford, Sagadahoc, Penobscot, Piscataquis — have low or no community transmission, defined as a new case rate of less than 8 per 10,000 people. Piscataquis County has the state’s lowest rate — 1.19 per 10,000 people.

Hospitalizations and deaths, which often lag behind case spikes by two weeks, also have been increasing in Maine.

As of Tuesday, 49 people in Maine were hospitalized, including 14 in critical care and five who were using a ventilator to help them breathe. One month ago, there were just seven people hospitalized, none in critical care.

And there have now been 10 deaths reported in the last 11 days, dating back to Oct. 31. Prior to that, there hadn’t been a death for two full weeks.

This story will be updated.

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