Over the weekend, the Bay Area experienced its first notable uptick in coronavirus cases since early September. But the region continues to hold steady even as the United States suffers through a record-breaking surge.
Of the nine counties in the Bay Area, eight reported a jump in positive case counts from the previous week, according to The Chronicle’s coronavirus data tracker, which records the seven-day moving average to account for variances in daily reporting.
The Bay Area as a whole reported about 3,700 cases last week, up from about 2,900 the week before, marking the first significant uptick since the end of August. California reported a similar increase: about 30,800 cases last week compared with 20,500 the week before.
Those are concerning spikes, especially with the holidays and the flu season on the horizon, but still nothing like the trends seen nationwide. Both the Bay Area and the state numbers are down substantially from early September. The United States is reporting daily new record case counts, and weekly reports are nearly double what they were in early September.
The Bay Area and state have not reported significant increases in hospitalizations or deaths, both of which are rising in many places across the U.S.
The only Bay Area county to continue its downtrend is Marin, with the weekly change in new cases dropping an additional 40% week-over-week (47 new cases). Other counties reported a week-over-week case increase from about 7% in Solano (18 new cases) to 48% in Napa (28 new cases).
San Francisco reported 34 new cases on Sunday, and Contra Costa County reported 73. Santa Clara County reported 130 new cases.
At least 339 new coronavirus deaths and 59,691 new cases were reported in the United States on Sunday. Average deaths per day across the country are up 10% over the past two weeks, from 721 to nearly 794 as of Sunday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
Confirmed infections per day are rising in 47 states, and the country has seen a 40% increase in the number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients over the past month, despite President Trump’s assurance over the weekend that “we’re rounding the turn, we’re doing great.”
The U.S. has more than 8.6 million confirmed infections and over 225,000 deaths, the highest totals anywhere in the world.
Things could get worse in the fall and winter, as a model from the University of Washington published Friday projects approximately a half-million Americans will have died from COVID-19 by the end of February.
The study adds that universal mask-wearing — 95% masking in public — could save around 130,000 of those lives. With 85% mask use, the projected deaths drop by about 96,000.
Experts suggest that is why California’s numbers stand in such stark contrast to the rest of the country — and the world. The state, and Bay Area in particular, have taken a measured approach to reopen the economy, led by science and guidelines laid out by infectious disease experts.
If the entire country had followed San Francisco’s approach to the coronavirus outbreak, the nation would have 50,000 dead from the pandemic instead of more than 225,000, Dr. Bob Wachter, an infectious disease expert at UCSF, told the Los Angeles Times.
A day after White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said “we’re not going to control the pandemic,” the World Health Organization on Monday urged countries not to give up on coronavirus containment efforts.
“Giving up on control is dangerous,” said Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO’s director-general. “Control should … be part of the strategy.”
Aidin Vaziri and Erin Allday are San Francisco Chronicle staff writers. Email: avaziri@sfchronicle.com, eallday@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @MusicSF, @ErinAllday
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October 27, 2020 at 06:30AM
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Despite small surge, Bay Area coronavirus case numbers pale compared to soaring national outbreak - San Francisco Chronicle
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