The circumstances of Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (staring Eddie Redmayne, Mads Mikkelsen and Jude Law) earning $6 million in Thursday previews are a little different than those for which Sonic the Hedgehog 2 earned $6.2 million in preview grosses last week. So if the mood last week was one of overwhelming optimism and the mood this week is of resigned despair, it’s all a matter of context. Fantastic Beasts 3 opened last night amid mixed-negative reviews (51% rotten and 5.6/10 from Rotten Tomatoes), yet more controversy around some of its central players (like JK Rowling and Ezra Miller) and the sense not of a surefire tentpole elevating the box office but of a long-delayed bomb finally going off.
Almost everyone knew this was coming, the issues and challenges at play have been set in stone for three years, but Warner Bros. couldn’t do much to prevent it. I am not unsympathetic, as we’re talking about a franchise whose first entry nabbed good reviews and long legs to the tune of $234 million domestic and $814 million worldwide. The sequel dove heard in North America amid terrible reviews, to just $155 million, but the drop overseas was just 15% (12% if you remove China) and $655 million on a $200 million budget is “just fine, thanks.”
Yes, schmucks like me have been predicting a Terminator Dark Fate/X-Men: Dark Phoenix/Divergent: Allegiant-style crash for three years, but A) I might have been wrong and B) WB had little choice but to press on for at least one more installment. They had promised five films in late 2016, and they couldn’t just cut bait on the second film and its hard cliffhanger. To be fair, The Secrets of Dumbledore at least gives the franchise a soft finale if we don’t get a fourth and fifth film. This may not “save” the franchise, but it will allow it a graceful end if that’s how it plays out.
Fantastic Beasts And Where to Find Them opened amid positive reviews and solid buzz to $8.75 million via Thursday previews and an eventual $74 million domestic debut. To my admitted surprise, the Eddie Redmayne/Katherine Waterson adventure legged out over late 2016 to $234 million domestic along with the strong $814 million global cume. However, The Crimes of Grindelwald was critically trashed, with the film rightfully being dinged as putting worldbuilding, franchise-building and mythology over character and in-the-movie plotting.
That Johnny Depp wasn’t exactly the Internet’s favorite actor by late 2018 (something that was already apparent in late 2016, by the way) didn’t help, and the film earned $9.2 million on Thursday but $62 million over its domestic debut. It then cratered with just $155 million domestic and a still-solid $655 million worldwide. But every sign pointed to a Divergent-like crash on the third go-around. With just $56 million overseas last weekend (compared to $115 million and $120 million for its predecessors), the grim predictions seem to be coming true.
Running the raw numbers, if Fantastic Beasts 3 performs like Fantastic Beasts 1 and 2 in terms of Thursday-to-weekend multipliers, it’s looking at an opening weekend between $41 million and $51 million. And, yeah, I imagine the franchise will be even more “for fans only” since we’re on the third chapter of an alleged five-part series that hasn’t exactly been gaining fans along the way. Point being, we’re probably looking at a film that crawls past $100 million domestic and probably plays a lot (on a Covid curve and without China offering much help) like Godzilla: King of the Monsters.
Of course, by Covid standards, maybe $250-$350 million worldwide is “close enough,” especially if lots of folks eventually check it out on HBO Max. While Warner Bros.’ theatrical might is not what it was in late 2018 (following A Star Is Born, The Meg, Crazy Rich Asians, The Nun and Ready Player One with Aquaman a month away), the whole HBO Max factor complicates things. But that conversation can wait until after we see how it opens domestically and plays overseas this weekend. First let’s see if it manages to top Sonic the Hedgehog 2’s second weekend.
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April 15, 2022 at 10:15PM
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Box Office: 'Fantastic Beasts 3' Nabs Soft $6 Million Thursday - Forbes
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